Hradec Králové 2-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malšovická Aréna.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 3 for Mlada Boleslav and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 49% versus Mlada Boleslav 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 38% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.33 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.949 / defence 0.872 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.909 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.095. Data: 32 Hradec Králové games / 32 Mlada Boleslav games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 24%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 4.17. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Mlada Boleslav lead the H2H ledger, but Hradec Králové carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Mlada Boleslav 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Hradec Králové 1.33 / Mlada Boleslav 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.949 / def 0.872 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.909 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mlada Boleslav xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 48% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.56
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.20
0.87
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.87 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 14W 10D 13L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 14W 8D 15L from 37 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.41 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 6D 8L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.46 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.89 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 56%, Mlada Boleslav 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hradec Králové) and 44% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 44% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 44% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Mlada Boleslav 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.33 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.87 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 24%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 38%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.