Pardubice 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Slovácko travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Pardubice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pardubice, 2 for Slovácko and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Slovácko 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.30 xG and Slovácko 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.802 / defence 1.032 | Slovácko attack 0.884 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.095. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Pardubice games / 33 Slovácko games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 43% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 29%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Slovácko 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 50% | Slovácko 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 43% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Pardubice 1.30 / Slovácko 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.802 / def 1.032 | Slovácko attack 0.884 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Slovácko xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 43% chance of winning, Slovácko a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in?
Pardubice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.58
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.30
1.00
Slovácko xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.00 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 12W 7D 19L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.13 PPG, Slovácko on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.18 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.05 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slovácko in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 47%, Slovácko 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 47% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 37% of games; Slovácko in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pardubice's recent matches and 42% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 47% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.30 xG and Slovácko 1.00 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 43% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 29%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Slovácko 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.13 PPG, Slovácko 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.