Zlin 0-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Zlin face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Zlin have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Praha — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Sparta Praha have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Zlin.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Zlin 1–3 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 55% and Sparta Praha 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 45% | Sparta Praha 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.04 xG and Sparta Praha 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.015 / defence 1.148 | Sparta Praha attack 1.230 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.190. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.720, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Zlin's projected output down. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.230, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Zlin's last 20 games and Sparta Praha's last 50.
Result probabilities: Zlin 23% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 52%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.37 | Draw 3.94 | Sparta Praha 1.93. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 23% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Zlin 1.04 / Sparta Praha 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.015 / def 1.148 | Sparta Praha attack 1.230 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Sparta Praha xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Zlin 0 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Sparta Praha part of?
Zlin vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 23% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zlin and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.01) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 20 games and Sparta Praha's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
23%
4.37
25%
3.94
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.72
1.68
Sparta Praha xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
4%
23.41
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Zlin and 1.68 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 7W 5D 8L from 20 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 3L across 20 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 70%.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Zlin (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Zlin vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.30 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Zlin or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Praha have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won Zlin 2-5 Sparta Praha.
Zlin's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Zlin
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 70%, Sparta Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zlin) and 60% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Sparta Praha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Zlin's games and 50% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zlin's matches and 60% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Zlin and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Zlin's recent matches and 70% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 0-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.04 xG and Sparta Praha 1.68 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Sparta Praha attack 1.23 / defence 0.72, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 23% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 52%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 45%, Sparta Praha 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.