Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.60 for Slovan Liberec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Slovan Liberec 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | Slovan Liberec 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.833 / defence 0.922 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.918 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.239. Data: 47 Bohemians 1905 games / 47 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 45% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Slovan Liberec 3.57. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 40% | Slovan Liberec 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 45% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.39 / Slovan Liberec 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.833 / def 0.922 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.918 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Slovan Liberec xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 45% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.83) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.92x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.72
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.44
1.05
Slovan Liberec xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.05 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 10D 21L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.33 PPG from 51 outings (18W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.33 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.55 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 10D 21L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.38 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 54%, Slovan Liberec 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians 1905) and 58% (Slovan Liberec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bohemians 1905's games and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 58% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 17, as Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 45% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 28%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 49%, Slovan Liberec 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.37 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.