FK Jablonec 3-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: FK Jablonec 2W, Teplice 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Teplice — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 63% and Teplice 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 53% | Teplice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.33 xG and Teplice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.928 / defence 1.003 | Teplice attack 0.912 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.158. Data: 46 FK Jablonec games / 46 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Teplice 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG FK Jablonec 1.33 / Teplice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.928 / def 1.003 | Teplice attack 0.912 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Teplice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
FK Jablonec 3 - 2 Teplice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Teplice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 43% chance of winning, Teplice a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FK Jablonec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.91x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.65
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.39
1.06
Teplice xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.06 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 17D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (16W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.22 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 8W 10D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (7W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.14 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Teplice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.36 PPG; Teplice away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 64%, Teplice 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for FK Jablonec and 72% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FK Jablonec's games and 64% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FK Jablonec's matches and 72% of Teplice's.
Do FK Jablonec and Teplice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Teplice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Teplice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Teplice 3-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.33 xG and Teplice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Teplice attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 53%, Teplice 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.10 PPG, Teplice 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.