Zlin 3-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Zlin face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Plzen meet at Stadion Letna in Czech Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Zlin's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Zlin have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 1.20 PPG clear of Zlin over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Plzen have the stronger record — 6 wins to Zlin's 1, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Zlin 1–0 Plzen — a Zlin win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 48% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 44% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.23 xG and Plzen 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.953 / defence 1.292 | Plzen attack 1.287 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.119. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.287, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Zlin's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plzen's projected output up. Data: built from Zlin's last 23 games and Plzen's last 53.
Result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Plzen 51%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.08 | Draw 4.13 | Plzen 1.95. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.23 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 60% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Plzen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Zlin 1.23 / Plzen 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.953 / def 1.292 | Plzen attack 1.287 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Plzen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Plzen xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Plzen kick off?
Zlin vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Zlin 3 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Zlin vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Plzen part of?
Zlin vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 24% chance of winning, Plzen a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zlin and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.29x) against Zlin's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 23 games and Plzen's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
24%
4.08
24%
4.13
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.09
1.86
Plzen xG
4.08
24%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
16%
6.43
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
4%
26.27
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Zlin and 1.86 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 7D 9L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 12W 6D 5L from 23 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 11 home games (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 2D 3L from their last 11 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.83 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Zlin (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Zlin vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Plzen in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Plzen have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.18 PPG; Plzen away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Zlin or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Plzen in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won Zlin 1-7 Plzen on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Zlin
0
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Plzen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Plzen 3-2 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 64%, Plzen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Zlin) and 64% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Zlin's games and 54% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Zlin's matches and 64% of Plzen's.
Do Zlin and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Zlin's recent matches and 91% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zlin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Plzen 3-0 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.23 xG and Plzen 1.86 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.95 / defence 1.29 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Plzen 51%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 44%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.