Zlin vs Pardubice Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Pardubice at Stadion Letna in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin at home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Pardubice's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 10 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Zlin, 4 for Pardubice and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Zlin 0–3 Pardubice — a Pardubice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 54% and Pardubice 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 54% | Pardubice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.81 xG and Pardubice 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.622 / defence 1.061 | Pardubice attack 1.115 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Zlin's attack rating of 0.622 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Zlin's last 44 games and Pardubice's last 44.
Result probabilities: Zlin 17% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 52%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 5.78 | Draw 3.24 | Pardubice 1.93. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zlin 40% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 17% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Zlin 0.81 / Pardubice 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.622 / def 1.061 | Pardubice attack 1.115 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Pardubice xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Pardubice kick off?
Zlin vs Pardubice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Pardubice part of?
Zlin vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 17% chance of winning, Pardubice a 52% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Zlin and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Zlin vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.62) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 44 games and Pardubice's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
17%
5.78
31%
3.24
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.34
1.53
Pardubice xG
5.78
17%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
4%
26.69
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.8 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Zlin and 1.53 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 10D 27L from 46 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 19L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pardubice by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 6W 4D 14L from their last 24 home games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 10W 4D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.33 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 70%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 10D 27L in their last 46 games (0.80 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Pardubice away?
Pardubice's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 0.92 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pardubice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2026, when Pardubice won Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Zlin's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zlin
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 50%, Pardubice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Zlin) and 62% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Pardubice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zlin's games and 67% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Zlin's matches and 62% of Pardubice's.
Do Zlin and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Zlin's recent matches and 62% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.