Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Slavia Praha travel to FINEP Arena to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at FINEP Arena, Hradec Králové have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slavia Praha are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 3 for Slavia Praha and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Slavia Praha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Slavia Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Slavia Praha 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / defence 0.902 | Slavia Praha attack 1.446 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Hradec Králové games / 37 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 23% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 51%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Slavia Praha 1.96. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 23% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Hradec Králové 1.06 / Slavia Praha 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / def 0.902 | Slavia Praha attack 1.446 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Slavia Praha xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 23% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Record (10 meetings): Hradec Králové 4W | Draws 3 | Slavia Praha 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.11x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
23%
4.27
25%
3.96
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.74
1.68
Slavia Praha xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
22.91
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.68 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 19W 9D 13L from 41 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 29W 10D 2L across 41 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 12W 6D 2L across 20 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.32 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 29W 10D 2L in their last 41 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.15 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Slavia Praha 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 65% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.