Sigma Olomouc 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Andrův stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 2.10 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 46% versus Sparta Praha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 46% | Sparta Praha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.45 xG and Sparta Praha 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.021 / defence 0.915 | Sparta Praha attack 1.101 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.324. Data: 46 Sigma Olomouc games / 46 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 39% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Sparta Praha 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 39% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.45 / Sparta Praha 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.021 / def 0.915 | Sparta Praha attack 1.101 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sparta Praha xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 39% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.02) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.10x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.75
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.78
1.33
Sparta Praha xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.33 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 14D 18L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.04 PPG from 50 outings (30W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.75 points per game from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.98 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 30W 12D 8L in their last 50 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.58 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Sparta Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sigma Olomouc) and 62% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 46% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 62% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.45 xG and Sparta Praha 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 39% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 34%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 46%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.