Pardubice 2-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Plzen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Pardubice's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–6 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Plzen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Plzen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.94 xG and Plzen 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.799 / defence 0.895 | Plzen attack 1.321 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.282. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Pardubice games / 52 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 30% | Plzen 49%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 2.04. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Pardubice 50% | Plzen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 30% | Plzen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 0.94 / Plzen 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.799 / def 0.895 | Plzen attack 1.321 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Plzen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Plzen xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Pardubice 2 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 22% chance of winning, Plzen a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 1 | Plzen 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.80) and Plzen's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
22%
4.63
30%
3.37
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.46
1.52
Plzen xG
4.63
22%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
21.12
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.52 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 10D 29L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 32W 10D 15L from 57 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 5D 8L from 28 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 18W 10D 29L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Plzen have gone 32W 10D 15L in their last 57 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.21 PPG; Plzen away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
2
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Plzen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, Plzen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 61% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Plzen tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Plzen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Pardubice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 2-3 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.94 xG and Plzen 1.52 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Plzen attack 1.32 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 30% | Plzen 49%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Plzen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.