Pardubice 2-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pardubice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Pardubice have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Pardubice.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Pardubice 2–6 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Plzen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Plzen 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pardubice surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.94 xG and Plzen 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.799 / defence 0.895 | Plzen attack 1.321 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.282. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Plzen bring a tight defence (rating 0.752, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.321, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Pardubice's last 52 games and Plzen's last 52.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 30% | Plzen 49%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.63 | Draw 3.37 | Plzen 2.05. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pardubice 50% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 30% | Plzen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Pardubice 0.94 / Plzen 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.799 / def 0.895 | Plzen attack 1.321 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Plzen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Plzen xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Pardubice 2 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 22% chance of winning, Plzen a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.80) and Plzen's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 52 games and Plzen's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
22%
4.63
30%
3.37
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.46
1.52
Plzen xG
4.63
22%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
21.12
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.52 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 10D 29L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 32W 10D 15L from 57 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 5D 8L from their last 28 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 18W 10D 29L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Plzen have gone 32W 10D 15L in their last 57 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.21 PPG; Plzen away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won Plzen 4-0 Pardubice.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 2, Plzen have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Plzen 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, Plzen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 61% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Pardubice's recent matches and 82% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Pardubice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 2-3 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.94 xG and Plzen 1.52 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Plzen attack 1.32 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 30% | Plzen 49%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Plzen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.