Plzen 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Teplice travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Doosan Aréna this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plzen, 0 for Teplice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Plzen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 42% versus Teplice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.12 xG and Teplice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.376 / defence 0.796 | Teplice attack 0.964 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.163. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Plzen's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Plzen games / 24 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 65% | Draw 20% | Teplice 15%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Teplice 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 30% | Teplice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 65% | Draw 20% | Teplice 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Plzen 2.12 / Teplice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.376 / def 0.796 | Teplice attack 0.964 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Plzen (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Teplice kick off?
Plzen vs Teplice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Plzen 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Plzen vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Teplice part of?
Plzen vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 65% chance of winning, Teplice a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plzen and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Plzen and Teplice in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.07
15%
6.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.01
0.89
Teplice xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
6.76
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.29
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
56.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Plzen and 0.89 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 19W 3D 2L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 6W 3D 15L from 24 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.83 PPG from 12 outings (11W 1D 0L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.04 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Teplice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 3D 2L in their last 24 games (2.50 PPG), while Teplice have gone 6W 3D 15L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Teplice away?
Plzen's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.83 PPG; Teplice away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Plzen or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Teplice in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
4
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Teplice have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Plzen 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Teplice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 42%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 67% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Teplice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Plzen's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 67% of Teplice's.
Do Plzen and Teplice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Teplice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Teplice 1-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.12 xG and Teplice 0.89 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Teplice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.38 / defence 0.80 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 65% | Draw 20% | Teplice 15%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.