Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 42%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 4D 2L at Andrův stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Teplice are 0.60 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 0 for Teplice and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 50% | Teplice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.72 xG and Teplice 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.010 / defence 1.234 | Teplice attack 1.085 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.165. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sigma Olomouc games / 22 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 42% | Draw 23% | Teplice 35%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Teplice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 42% | Draw 23% | Teplice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.72 / Teplice 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.010 / def 1.234 | Teplice attack 1.085 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Teplice xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance of winning, Teplice a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.01x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.08x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.34
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.28
1.56
Teplice xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.56 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 14L across 22 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.91 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Teplice's away record stands at 2W 1D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.14 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Teplice have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Teplice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.60 PPG; Teplice away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 60%, Teplice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sigma Olomouc and 80% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 60% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 80% of Teplice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Teplice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Teplice in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Teplice finished level at 0-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.72 xG and Teplice 1.56 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Teplice landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Teplice attack 1.08 / defence 1.45, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 42% | Draw 23% | Teplice 35%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 50%, Teplice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.14 PPG, Teplice 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.