Pardubice vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pardubice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Teplice, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Teplice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Teplice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 67% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Teplice 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.25 xG and Teplice 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.022 / defence 0.969 | Teplice attack 1.083 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Data: 41 Pardubice games / 41 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 37% | Draw 28% | Teplice 35%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 37% | Draw 28% | Teplice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pardubice 1.25 / Teplice 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.022 / def 0.969 | Teplice attack 1.083 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Teplice xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 37% chance of winning, Teplice a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 3 | Teplice 5W.
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 1.02x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.08x) against Pardubice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.61
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.47
1.22
Teplice xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.22 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 15W 10D 18L from 43 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 15L across 43 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Pardubice against 1.30 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 7W 8D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 14D 15L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.29 PPG; Teplice away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 71%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pardubice) and 43% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pardubice's games and 57% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pardubice's recent games and 43% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Teplice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Teplice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.