Teplice 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Teplice's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slavia Praha's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.10 PPG clear of Teplice over their recent games (2.60 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Teplice, 2 for Slavia Praha and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Teplice 1–1 Slavia Praha — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 66% versus Slavia Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 61% | Slavia Praha 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Teplice surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Slavia Praha have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.666 / defence 0.803 | Slavia Praha attack 1.077 / defence 0.659. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.209. Teplice's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.659, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Data: built from Teplice's last 39 games and Slavia Praha's last 39.
Result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 41%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.73 | Draw 3.11 | Slavia Praha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Teplice's lower xG of 0.78 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Teplice 0.78 / Slavia Praha 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.666 / def 0.803 | Slavia Praha attack 1.077 / def 0.659 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Slavia Praha xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Teplice 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 27% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Teplice and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Teplice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.08x) against Teplice's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 39 games and Slavia Praha's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
27%
3.73
32%
3.11
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.83
1.05
Slavia Praha xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Teplice and 1.05 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 12D 18L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Slavia Praha's form line: 31W 8D 5L from 44 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 21 home games (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 10W 6D 5L from their last 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.61 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 31W 8D 5L in their last 44 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.52 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Teplice and Slavia Praha, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 6-0 Teplice on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Teplice 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 57%, Slavia Praha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Teplice) and 48% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Teplice's recent games and 48% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Teplice's recent matches and 81% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 10, as Teplice and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 1.05 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.67 / defence 0.80 against Slavia Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.66, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 27% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 41%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 61%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.