Slovan Liberec 3-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.50 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 1 for Teplice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 60% and Teplice 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 57% | Teplice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.839 / defence 0.987 | Teplice attack 0.960 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.180. Data: 38 Slovan Liberec games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Teplice 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Slovan Liberec 60% | Teplice 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Teplice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.29 / Teplice 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.839 / def 0.987 | Teplice attack 0.960 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Teplice xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 3 - 3 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Record (2 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.96x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.64
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.41
1.12
Teplice xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.12 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 11D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (14W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.24 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (6W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.19 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.38 PPG; Teplice away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 5-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 57%, Teplice 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Slovan Liberec and 81% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Slovan Liberec's games and 71% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 81% of Teplice's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Teplice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Teplice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 9, as Slovan Liberec and Teplice drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Teplice 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 57%, Teplice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.