Slovan Liberec 3-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovan Liberec face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.50 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) — Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Teplice edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2022, ended Slovan Liberec 1–2 Teplice — a Teplice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 60% and Teplice 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 57% | Teplice 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovan Liberec surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.839 / defence 0.987 | Teplice attack 0.960 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.180. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 38 games and Teplice's last 38.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Teplice 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.47 | Draw 3.64 | Teplice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Teplice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.29 / Teplice 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.839 / def 0.987 | Teplice attack 0.960 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Teplice xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 3 - 3 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.96x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 38 games and Teplice's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.64
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.41
1.12
Teplice xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.12 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 11D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (14W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.24 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.19 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 64%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.38 PPG; Teplice away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 3-0 Teplice on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
6
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Teplice have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 57%, Teplice 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Slovan Liberec and 81% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Slovan Liberec's games and 71% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 81% of Teplice's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 71% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Teplice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 9, as Slovan Liberec and Teplice drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Teplice 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 57%, Teplice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.