Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Teplice face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Teplice — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Hradec Králové away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Teplice.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Teplice 0–0 Hradec Králové — a draw.
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Hradec Králové 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.00 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.764 / defence 0.935 | Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Teplice's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Teplice's last 59 games and Hradec Králové's last 59.
Result probabilities: Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.49 | Draw 3.04 | Hradec Králové 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Teplice 1.00 / Hradec Králové 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.764 / def 0.935 | Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 29% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.76x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 59 games and Hradec Králové's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.04
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.19
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Teplice and 1.19 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 18W 19D 26L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 27W 14D 22L from 63 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 31 home games (13W 5D 13L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 11W 5D 15L from their last 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.30 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Teplice (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 19D 26L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.42 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Teplice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 45%, Hradec Králové 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Teplice) and 52% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Teplice's recent matches and 42% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Teplice's recent games and 52% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Teplice's recent matches and 64% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.00 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.