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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Sparta Praha.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Sparta Praha 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 44% | Sparta Praha 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.779 / defence 0.968 | Sparta Praha attack 1.107 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Bohemians 1905 games / 59 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Sparta Praha 2.17. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Sparta Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.

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