Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Sparta Praha 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 44% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.779 / defence 0.968 | Sparta Praha attack 1.107 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Bohemians 1905 games / 59 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Sparta Praha 2.17. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Sparta Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.80 / Sparta Praha 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.779 / def 0.968 | Sparta Praha attack 1.107 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sparta Praha xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 22% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 8W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.11x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
22%
4.64
33%
3.04
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.06
1.26
Sparta Praha xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.42
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.26 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 16D 28L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 37W 12D 14L from 63 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 16W 6D 9L from 31 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.89 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 65%.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 37W 12D 14L in their last 63 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.16 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, Sparta Praha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 55% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 36%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 55% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 55% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sparta Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sparta Praha 2-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Sparta Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.73, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 46%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.