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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 3W 2D 5L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Slovácko have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 0.80 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Teplice, 4 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Teplice in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Slovácko in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Slovácko 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Slovácko 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.14 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.697 / defence 0.919 | Slovácko attack 0.883 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Teplice's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Slovácko 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Slovácko 30% BTTS from recent games.

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