Teplice 1-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 3W 2D 5L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 0.80 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Teplice, 4 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Slovácko 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.14 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.697 / defence 0.919 | Slovácko attack 0.883 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Teplice's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Slovácko 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Slovácko 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Teplice 1.14 / Slovácko 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.697 / def 0.919 | Slovácko attack 0.883 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Slovácko xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 1 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Relegation Group - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Slovácko a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 4W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.70x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.12
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.11
0.97
Slovácko xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Teplice and 0.97 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 19D 28L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.94 PPG from 65 outings (14W 19D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.12 PPG, Slovácko on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 13W 5D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.62 points per game from 32 outings (4W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.88 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 19D 28L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 19D 32L in their last 65 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.38 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slovácko in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 44%, Slovácko 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Teplice) and 47% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Slovácko in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Teplice's recent matches and 41% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Teplice's recent games and 47% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Relegation Group - 1, as Teplice and Slovácko drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.14 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 32% | Slovácko 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.12 PPG, Slovácko 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.