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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Teplice — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Teplice's 1 victories.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.

It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Hradec Králové 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 41% | Hradec Králové 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.852 / defence 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 1.241 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Hradec Králové have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Teplice games / 59 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 40% | Hradec Králové 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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