🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Sparta Praha.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sparta Praha make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 2W 4D 4L at CFIG Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.

Sparta Praha have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Sparta Praha away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.80 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Pardubice — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 41% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 41% | Sparta Praha 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.87 xG and Sparta Praha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.759 / defence 0.935 | Sparta Praha attack 1.098 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Pardubice games / 59 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 31% | Sparta Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sparta Praha 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Sparta Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights