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Poisson model favours Teplice (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Teplice.

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Full Analysis

Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

České Budějovice (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for České Budějovice, 4 for Teplice and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–5 with Teplice winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 61% | Teplice 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.05 xG and Teplice 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.749 / defence 1.525 | Teplice attack 0.806 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.218. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 České Budějovice games / 58 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 26% | Draw 28% | Teplice 47%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 2.13. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 20% | Teplice 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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