Hradec Králové 0-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Slovan Liberec travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Malšovická Aréna this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.80 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 1, Slovan Liberec 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 45% versus Slovan Liberec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Slovan Liberec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.899 / defence 0.850 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.103 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.193. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Hradec Králové games / 58 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 38%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Slovan Liberec 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Slovan Liberec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Hradec Králové 0.95 / Slovan Liberec 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.899 / def 0.850 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.103 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Slovan Liberec xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Hradec Králové 0 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 30% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Record (5 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 3 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
30%
3.38
32%
3.09
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.07
1.12
Slovan Liberec xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.12 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 21L across 60 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.42 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 14W 9D 7L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 5W 11D 14L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.47 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.70 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Slovan Liberec 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Hradec Králové) and 47% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 57% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 47% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.95 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.10 / defence 0.78, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 30% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 38%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Slovan Liberec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.