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Poisson model rates Teplice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.

Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Dukla Praha's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Teplice) versus 1.10 (Dukla Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Teplice, 0 for Dukla Praha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Teplice trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Dukla Praha trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 57% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 40% | Dukla Praha 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.28 xG and Dukla Praha 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.852 / defence 0.812 | Dukla Praha attack 0.760 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Teplice games / 30 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 49% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 21%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Dukla Praha 4.76. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.

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