Sparta Praha 5-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sparta Praha face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sparta Praha welcome Baník Ostrava to epet ARENA in Czech Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baník Ostrava stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sparta Praha are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for Baník Ostrava, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Sparta Praha 3–0 Baník Ostrava — a Sparta Praha win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 66% versus Baník Ostrava 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | Baník Ostrava 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.267 / defence 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.783 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.090. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.267 — their 1.52 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 53 games and Baník Ostrava's last 53.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.00 | Draw 3.61 | Baník Ostrava 4.47. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 80% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sparta Praha 1.52 / Baník Ostrava 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.267 / def 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.783 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha 5 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 50% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.27x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 53 games and Baník Ostrava's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.61
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.46
0.94
Baník Ostrava xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
20.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.94 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Praha come into this having played 58 games, going 33W 12D 13L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.55 PPG from 58 outings (26W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Praha on 1.91 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sparta Praha's home form reads 17W 6D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.28 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 33W 12D 13L in their last 58 games (1.91 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 26W 12D 20L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.04 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2023, when Sparta Praha won Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 75%, Baník Ostrava 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Sparta Praha) and 36% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sparta Praha's games and 39% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 36% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 71% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Baník Ostrava 5-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.27 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Baník Ostrava 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.91 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.