Slovácko 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovácko (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Slovan Liberec travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Slovan Liberec — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slovácko, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 39% versus Slovan Liberec 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 41% | Slovan Liberec 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.88 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.912 / defence 0.782 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.932 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.203. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Slovácko games / 42 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 61% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 17%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Slovan Liberec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Slovan Liberec 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 61% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Slovácko 1.88 / Slovan Liberec 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.912 / def 0.782 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.932 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Slovan Liberec xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Slovácko 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 61% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slovácko and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slovan Liberec?
Record (4 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Slovácko and Slovan Liberec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slovácko's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.54
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.75
0.88
Slovan Liberec xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
38.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.88 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 12D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.24 PPG from 46 outings (15W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.50 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 11W 6D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.50 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec in 61%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovácko's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.77 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
1
Draws
6
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 41%, Slovan Liberec 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Slovácko) and 64% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Slovácko's recent matches and 64% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Slovácko's recent games and 64% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and Slovan Liberec finished level at 1-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.88 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.88 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.91 / defence 0.78 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 61% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 17%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 41%, Slovan Liberec 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.50 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.