Slovan Liberec 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for FK Jablonec and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 48% versus FK Jablonec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Slovan Liberec 41% | FK Jablonec 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.43 xG and FK Jablonec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.891 / defence 0.903 | FK Jablonec attack 0.962 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.369. Data: 42 Slovan Liberec games / 42 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 28%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | FK Jablonec 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 50% | FK Jablonec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.43 / FK Jablonec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.891 / def 0.903 | FK Jablonec attack 0.962 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FK Jablonec xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 39% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Slovan Liberec 0W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.89x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.96x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.06
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.62
1.19
FK Jablonec xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.19 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 10D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.98 PPG from 44 outings (8W 19D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 0.98 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 8W 4D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (3W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.95 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 8W 19D 17L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.33 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 38%, FK Jablonec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 43% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 48% of games; FK Jablonec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 52% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 43% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.43 xG and FK Jablonec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against FK Jablonec attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 41%, FK Jablonec 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.18 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.