FK Jablonec 0-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plzen trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 53% versus Plzen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 38% | Plzen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Plzen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.103 / defence 0.965 | Plzen attack 1.082 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.356. Data: 41 FK Jablonec games / 40 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 32% | Plzen 35%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Plzen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 32% | Plzen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG FK Jablonec 1.38 / Plzen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.103 / def 0.965 | Plzen attack 1.082 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Plzen (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Plzen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 0 - 3 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 33% chance of winning, Plzen a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.10) and Plzen's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.17
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.80
1.42
Plzen xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.42 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 8W 20D 17L from 45 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 34W 9D 2L across 45 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 5W 11D 7L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 14W 7D 2L across 23 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.84 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 8W 20D 17L in their last 45 games (0.98 PPG), while Plzen have gone 34W 9D 2L in their last 45 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.13 PPG; Plzen away: 2.13 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Plzen in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 56%, Plzen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for FK Jablonec and 35% for Plzen.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 44%; FK Jablonec have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 48% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 35% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Plzen in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 0-3 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Plzen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Plzen attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 32% | Plzen 35%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 38%, Plzen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.