Slovácko 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Slovácko welcome Teplice to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 0.90 PPG versus Teplice's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Teplice in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 57% versus Teplice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 64% | Teplice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 2.09 xG and Teplice 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.884 / defence 1.182 | Teplice attack 0.946 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.399. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.533 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Slovácko games / 42 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 48% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.70. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 50% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 48% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Slovácko 2.09 / Teplice 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.884 / def 1.182 | Teplice attack 0.946 / def 1.533 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Teplice xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Teplice kick off?
Slovácko vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Slovácko 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Slovácko vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Teplice part of?
Slovácko vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 48% chance of winning, Teplice a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Slovácko and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.88) and Teplice's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.90
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.65
1.56
Teplice xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.56 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko's recent record stands at 24W 9D 14L from 47 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 25L across 47 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Teplice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 15W 2D 5L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Teplice's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 24W 9D 14L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Teplice away?
Slovácko's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.14 PPG; Teplice away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Teplice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
2
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 4, Teplice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 46%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Slovácko and 73% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Teplice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slovácko's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Slovácko's matches and 73% of Teplice's.
Do Slovácko and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Teplice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Teplice 2-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 2.09 xG and Teplice 1.56 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 1.53, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 48% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 64%, Teplice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.