Zlin 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Slovan Liberec at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Letná — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovan Liberec — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Zlin) versus 1.20 (Slovan Liberec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Zlin, 0 for Slovan Liberec and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Zlin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 60% versus Slovan Liberec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 56% | Slovan Liberec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.12 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.816 / defence 1.132 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.941 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.356. Data: 41 Zlin games / 41 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 26% | Draw 33% | Slovan Liberec 41%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Slovan Liberec 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Slovan Liberec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 26% | Draw 33% | Slovan Liberec 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Zlin 1.12 / Slovan Liberec 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.816 / def 1.132 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.941 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Slovan Liberec xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Zlin 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 26% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zlin and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
Record (2 meetings): Zlin 2W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.82x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
26%
3.83
33%
3.06
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.57
1.45
Slovan Liberec xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Zlin and 1.45 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 15D 19L from 43 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 19L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.98 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 7W 5D 9L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.02 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 15D 19L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Zlin's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.24 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zlin's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Zlin
1
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 67%, Slovan Liberec 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zlin) and 48% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 48% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Zlin and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.12 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.45 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 26% | Draw 33% | Slovan Liberec 41%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Slovan Liberec 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.98 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.