Pardubice 1-3 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Zbrojovka Brno travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pardubice — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zbrojovka Brno are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Zbrojovka Brno 73%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 73% | Zbrojovka Brno 91%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.24 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.684 / defence 0.985 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.052 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.369. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Pardubice games / 11 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 33% | Zbrojovka Brno 38%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Zbrojovka Brno 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Zbrojovka Brno 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 33% | Zbrojovka Brno 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Pardubice 1.24 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.684 / def 0.985 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.052 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Zbrojovka Brno xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Pardubice 1 - 3 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.68x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.07
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.66
1.42
Zbrojovka Brno xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.42 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 2W 0D 9L from 11 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 5L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zbrojovka Brno by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.27 PPG overall record — Zbrojovka Brno travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.82 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.55 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 2W 0D 9L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
2
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 20%, Zbrojovka Brno 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Pardubice and 80% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Pardubice's recent matches and 80% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Pardubice's matches and 80% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Pardubice and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Pardubice 1-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.24 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.42 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.68 / defence 0.98 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.05 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 33% | Zbrojovka Brno 38%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 73%, Zbrojovka Brno 91%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.