Slovácko 1-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovácko face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to face Slovácko in Czech Liga (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Slovácko's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Slovácko have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Zlin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Slovácko against 1.20 for Zlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Slovácko edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Slovácko 3–0 Zlin — a Slovácko win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Slovácko — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 46% versus Zlin 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | Zlin 63%). Note also that Zlin surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Slovácko recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.99 xG and Zlin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.983 / defence 1.085 | Zlin attack 0.838 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.126. Zlin's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovácko's projected output up. Data: built from Slovácko's last 36 games and Zlin's last 36.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 60% | Draw 21% | Zlin 19%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.68 | Draw 4.68 | Zlin 5.27. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovácko 50% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 7 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 60% | Draw 21% | Zlin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Slovácko 1.99 / Zlin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.983 / def 1.085 | Zlin attack 0.838 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Zlin xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Zlin kick off?
Slovácko vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Zlin?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Slovácko vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Zlin part of?
Slovácko vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 7) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 60% chance of winning, Zlin a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Slovácko and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovácko vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.98x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.84x) against Slovácko's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 36 games and Zlin's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.68
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.01
1.02
Zlin xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
3%
38.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.02 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovácko come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 13D 12L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.00 PPG from 41 outings (9W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Slovácko's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across their last 20 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.60 points per game from their last 20 away games (1W 9D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zlin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.17 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 66%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
Slovácko (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Slovácko vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 16W 13D 12L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 14D 18L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Zlin away?
Slovácko's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.65 PPG; Zlin away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zlin in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won Slovácko 3-0 Zlin on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Slovácko
1
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 6, Zlin have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Zlin 0-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Zlin?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 45%, Zlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Slovácko) and 60% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Zlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Slovácko's recent matches and 60% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Slovácko's recent games and 60% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Slovácko's recent matches and 65% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Zlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Zlin 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.99 xG and Zlin 1.02 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Zlin attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 60% | Draw 21% | Zlin 19%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Zlin 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.