Teplice 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Teplice against 1.40 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Pardubice — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 68% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 63% | Pardubice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.52 xG and Pardubice 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.775 / defence 0.793 | Pardubice attack 0.923 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.126. Teplice's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Teplice's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Teplice games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 54% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 5.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 60% | Pardubice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 54% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Teplice 1.52 / Pardubice 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.775 / def 0.793 | Pardubice attack 0.923 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Teplice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Pardubice xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 0 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 54% chance of winning, Pardubice a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
Record (3 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.78x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.92x) against Teplice's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.86
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.35
0.82
Pardubice xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Teplice and 0.82 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.10 PPG from 41 outings (13W 6D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Teplice against 1.10 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 8W 8D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (5W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.05 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 22L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 60%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Teplice) and 55% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Teplice's games and 50% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Teplice's recent games and 55% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.52 xG and Pardubice 0.82 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.78 / defence 0.79 against Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 54% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 63%, Pardubice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Pardubice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.