Hradec Králové 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malšovická Aréna: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Sigma Olomouc's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 0 for Sigma Olomouc and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.65 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.149 / defence 0.983 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.003 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.091. Data: 36 Hradec Králové games / 36 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 25%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 4.00. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sigma Olomouc (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Hradec Králové 1.65 / Sigma Olomouc 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.149 / def 0.983 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.003 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 51% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.15x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.08
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.72
1.07
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
20.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.30 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 8W 2D 9L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 7W 7D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.50 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.37 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 47%, Sigma Olomouc 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hradec Králové) and 47% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 32%; Hradec Králové have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 53% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 47% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Hradec Králové 1-3 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.65 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 25%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 52%, Sigma Olomouc 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.