Zlin 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 44%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Teplice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Zlin, 2 for Teplice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Teplice trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 65% and Teplice 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 62% | Teplice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.50 xG and Teplice 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.898 / defence 0.951 | Teplice attack 1.052 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.184. Data: 35 Zlin games / 35 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 44% | Draw 26% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Teplice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 44% | Draw 26% | Teplice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Zlin 1.50 / Teplice 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.898 / def 0.951 | Teplice attack 1.052 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Zlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Teplice xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Zlin 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 44% chance of winning, Teplice a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): Zlin 2W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.90x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.91
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.68
1.18
Teplice xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Zlin and 1.18 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 14D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (13W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.95 PPG, Teplice on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zlin's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.25 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Teplice in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Teplice away?
Zlin's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.37 PPG; Teplice away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 68%, Teplice at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Zlin and 84% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Zlin's games and 74% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Zlin's matches and 84% of Teplice's.
Do Zlin and Teplice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Teplice in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Teplice 2-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.50 xG and Teplice 1.18 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Teplice attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 44% | Draw 26% | Teplice 30%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 62%, Teplice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.95 PPG, Teplice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.