Zlin 1-7 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Plzen meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Zlin's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Zlin have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plzen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 0.70 PPG clear of Zlin over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Zlin's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) — Zlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Plzen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Plzen have the stronger record — 4 wins to Zlin's 0, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Zlin 0–4 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 63% and Plzen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 61% | Plzen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.52 xG and Plzen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.975 / defence 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.272 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.111. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.272, which lifts their away xG to 1.38. Data: built from Zlin's last 37 games and Plzen's last 36.
Result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.44 | Draw 4.05 | Plzen 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Zlin 1.52 / Plzen 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.975 / def 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.272 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Plzen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Plzen kick off?
Zlin vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Zlin 1 - 7 Plzen.
Where is Zlin vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Plzen part of?
Zlin vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zlin and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.27x) against Zlin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 37 games and Plzen's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.05
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.38
Plzen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Zlin and 1.38 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 14D 18L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 22W 8D 11L from 41 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 19 home games (8W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 9W 4D 6L from their last 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.78 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Plzen in 61%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
Zlin (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Zlin vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Plzen in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 14D 18L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Plzen have gone 22W 8D 11L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.47 PPG; Plzen away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won Zlin 1-7 Plzen on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Zlin
0
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Plzen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Plzen 3-2 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 68%, Plzen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Zlin and 58% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 32%; Zlin have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Zlin's games and 58% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Zlin's matches and 58% of Plzen's.
Do Zlin and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Zlin's recent matches and 79% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 1-7 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.52 xG and Plzen 1.38 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.38 projection by 5.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Plzen 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 61%, Plzen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.