Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Slavia Praha face Mlada Boleslav.

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Full Analysis

Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Slavia Praha have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Slavia Praha at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Mlada Boleslav (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Slavia Praha's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Mlada Boleslav's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Slavia Praha have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins, with Mlada Boleslav managing 0 and 1 draw.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Slavia Praha 3–1 Mlada Boleslav — a Slavia Praha win.

The head-to-head data gives Slavia Praha an edge — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 53% | Mlada Boleslav 64%). Note also that Mlada Boleslav surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Slavia Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.09 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.420 / defence 0.911 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.976 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.219. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.420 — their 2.09 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 50 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 50.

Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 60% | Draw 22% | Mlada Boleslav 18%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.67 | Draw 4.63 | Mlada Boleslav 5.44. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 50% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 80% (last 10 away games).

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