Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Andrův stadion this season.
Pardubice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Pardubice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sigma Olomouc and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 48% versus Pardubice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 46% | Pardubice 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.81 xG and Pardubice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.039 / defence 0.917 | Pardubice attack 0.915 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.369. Data: 50 Sigma Olomouc games / 50 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 52% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 4.35. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 52% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.81 / Pardubice 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.039 / def 0.917 | Pardubice attack 0.915 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Pardubice xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 52% chance of winning, Pardubice a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Record (3 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.04) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.92x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.00
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.96
1.15
Pardubice xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
4%
26.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.15 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 18D 18L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 14W 11D 29L from 54 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.98 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (10W 10D 6L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 8W 2D 16L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.06 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 18D 18L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 11D 29L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Pardubice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.54 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Pardubice 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 54%, Pardubice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sigma Olomouc) and 69% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 62% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 69% of Pardubice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice finished level at 2-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.81 xG and Pardubice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 52% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 46%, Pardubice 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.33 PPG, Pardubice 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.