Pardubice 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zlin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Zlin travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 2W 2D 6L at CFIG Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zlin have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 1.10 PPG versus Zlin's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 0, Zlin 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 54% versus Zlin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 57% | Zlin 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.16 xG and Zlin 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.715 / defence 1.073 | Zlin attack 0.937 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.425. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Pardubice games / 49 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 29% | Zlin 42%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Zlin 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 29% | Zlin 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Pardubice 1.16 / Zlin 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.715 / def 1.073 | Zlin attack 0.937 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Zlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Zlin xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Zlin a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Record (3 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 1 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.71x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
29%
3.44
29%
3.42
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.59
1.43
Zlin xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.43 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 54 games, going 13W 12D 29L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.98 PPG from 54 outings (12W 17D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 0.94 PPG, Zlin on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 5W 10D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (2W 11D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.17 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while Zlin have gone 12W 17D 25L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.96 PPG; Zlin away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, Zlin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pardubice) and 54% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 42% of games; Zlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 62% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pardubice's recent games and 54% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Zlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Zlin 2-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.16 xG and Zlin 1.43 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against Zlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 29% | Zlin 42%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 57%, Zlin 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.94 PPG, Zlin 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.