Bohemians 1905 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Zbrojovka Brno travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Zbrojovka Brno's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 65% and Zbrojovka Brno 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 55% | Zbrojovka Brno 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.73 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.034 / defence 1.417 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.785 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.351. Data: 50 Bohemians 1905 games / 20 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Zbrojovka Brno 33%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Zbrojovka Brno 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 80% | Zbrojovka Brno 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Zbrojovka Brno 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.73 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.034 / def 1.417 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.785 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Zbrojovka Brno xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 0 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.03) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.09
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.23
1.50
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.50 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 4D 8L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.40 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.40 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 7W 3D 10L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 0.90 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bohemians 1905 at 80%, Zbrojovka Brno at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Bohemians 1905 and 70% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bohemians 1905's games and 60% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 70% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.73 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.50 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.03 / defence 1.42 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Zbrojovka Brno 33%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 55%, Zbrojovka Brno 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.40 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.