Pardubice 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at CFIG Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pardubice 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pardubice, 2 for Baník Ostrava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 55% and Baník Ostrava 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 59% | Baník Ostrava 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.09 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.790 / defence 1.058 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.091 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.370. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Pardubice games / 51 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 48%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.08. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Pardubice 1.09 / Baník Ostrava 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.790 / def 1.058 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.091 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 25% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.79x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
25%
3.96
27%
3.67
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.67
1.58
Baník Ostrava xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
19.21
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.58 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 13D 29L from 56 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 19L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 10D 11L from 27 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 8W 10D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.68 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 70%.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.04 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Baník Ostrava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pardubice) and 59% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Pardubice's games and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pardubice's recent games and 59% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Baník Ostrava finished level at 1-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.09 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.58 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 48%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 59%, Baník Ostrava 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.