FK Jablonec 4-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Teplice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FK Jablonec 1W, Teplice 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 51% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.16 xG and Teplice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.037 / defence 1.072 | Teplice attack 0.738 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.369. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 FK Jablonec games / 50 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 61% | Draw 22% | Teplice 17%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Teplice 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 61% | Draw 22% | Teplice 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG FK Jablonec 2.16 / Teplice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.037 / def 1.072 | Teplice attack 0.738 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Teplice xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Teplice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
FK Jablonec 4 - 1 Teplice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Teplice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 61% chance of winning, Teplice a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FK Jablonec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.74x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.62
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.24
1.08
Teplice xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
50.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.08 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 21D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.96 PPG from 55 outings (14W 11D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.96 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 6W 11D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (4W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.13 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Teplice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 11W 21D 23L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 11D 30L in their last 55 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Teplice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.12 PPG; Teplice away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Teplice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 54%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FK Jablonec) and 73% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 27% of games; Teplice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of FK Jablonec's matches and 73% of Teplice's.
Do FK Jablonec and Teplice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Teplice in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Teplice 4-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.16 xG and Teplice 1.08 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Teplice attack 0.74 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 61% | Draw 22% | Teplice 17%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.98 PPG, Teplice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.