Sigma Olomouc 2-4 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Andruv stadion plays host to Sigma Olomouc versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Sigma Olomouc, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Mlada Boleslav — Mlada Boleslav have 1 win, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Sigma Olomouc 4–1 Mlada Boleslav — a Sigma Olomouc win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sigma Olomouc and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 52% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.899 / defence 0.842 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.934 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.118. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 56 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 56.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.14 | Draw 3.26 | Mlada Boleslav 4.42. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Sigma Olomouc 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 20% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.37 / Mlada Boleslav 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.899 / def 0.842 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.934 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Mlada Boleslav xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 4 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 47% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.93x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 56 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.26
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.25
0.88
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.88 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 23W 16D 22L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 17W 17D 27L from 61 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.11 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 6D 10L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 7D 15L from their last 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.38 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 23W 16D 22L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 17D 27L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Mlada Boleslav on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Mlada Boleslav 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sigma Olomouc and 62% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 66% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 76% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Sigma Olomouc 2-4 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Mlada Boleslav win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.39 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.