Artis vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Artis vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Artis welcome Pardubice to Town Stadium Karvina. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 games at Town Stadium Karvina this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Pardubice — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pardubice — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Artis register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Pardubice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Artis, 0 for Pardubice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Artis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Artis trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pardubice trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Artis 62% and Pardubice 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Artis 75% | Pardubice 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.21 xG and Pardubice 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.769 / defence 1.644 | Pardubice attack 0.928 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Artis's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Artis games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 22% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 57%. Fair-value odds: Artis 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Pardubice 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Pardubice (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Artis 75% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 22% | Draw 21% | Pardubice 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Artis 1.21 / Pardubice 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.769 / def 1.644 | Pardubice attack 0.928 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Artis xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Pardubice xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Pardubice kick off?
Artis vs Pardubice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Pardubice part of?
Artis vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 22% chance of winning, Pardubice a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Artis and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Artis 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Artis and Pardubice in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Artis's attack rating (0.77) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
22%
4.58
21%
4.77
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Artis xG
Total xG
3.29
2.08
Pardubice xG
4.58
22%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
3%
36.48
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Artis and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Artis and 2.08 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Artis's recent record stands at 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 6L across 8 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Artis on 0.50 PPG, Pardubice on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Artis have managed 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Pardubice's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Artis are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Pardubice in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Pardubice away?
Pardubice's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.00 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Artis
0
Draws
0
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Pardubice?
From 1 meetings on record, Artis have won 1, Pardubice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Artis and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Pardubice 1-2 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Artis and Pardubice?
Artis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Artis at 75%, Pardubice at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Artis and 100% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Artis's games and 100% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Artis vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 100% of Pardubice's.
Do Artis and Pardubice tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.