Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (82%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome České Budějovice to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, České Budějovice stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
České Budějovice away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 7 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for České Budějovice, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Plzen 3–0 České Budějovice — a Plzen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Plzen and goals — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 55% versus České Budějovice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 57% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.96 xG and České Budějovice 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.219 / defence 0.778 | České Budějovice attack 0.758 / defence 1.630. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.201. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.630 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plzen's projected output up. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Plzen have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling České Budějovice's projected output down. Data: built from Plzen's last 48 games and České Budějovice's last 48.
Result probabilities: Plzen 82% | Draw 12% | České Budějovice 6%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.22 | Draw 8.04 | České Budějovice 18.02. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (82%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 50% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 82% | Draw 12% | České Budějovice 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Plzen 2.96 / České Budějovice 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.219 / def 0.778 | České Budějovice attack 0.758 / def 1.630 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Plzen (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.71
České Budějovice xG
49%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Plzen vs České Budějovice kick off?
Plzen vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Plzen 7 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Plzen vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs České Budějovice part of?
Plzen vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 82% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 6% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Plzen and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Plzen vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.22x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 2.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 48 games and České Budějovice's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 4-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
82%
1.22
12%
8.04
6%
18.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
4 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.67
0.71
České Budějovice xG
1.22
82%
Home win
8.04
12%
Draw
18.02
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
5%
19.24
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Plzen and 0.71 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 53 games, going 33W 11D 9L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.68 PPG from 53 outings (8W 12D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 19W 4D 3L across their last 26 home games, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.27 points per game from their last 26 away games (0W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.89 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Plzen vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 33W 11D 9L in their last 53 games (2.08 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 12D 33L in their last 53 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or České Budějovice away?
Plzen's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.35 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Plzen or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 České Budějovice.
Plzen's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Plzen
0
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 8, České Budějovice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 December 2024: Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, České Budějovice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Plzen and 65% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; České Budějovice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and České Budějovice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plzen's recent matches and 58% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Plzen's matches and 65% of České Budějovice's.
Do Plzen and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Plzen's recent matches and 77% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 7-2 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 7-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.96 xG and České Budějovice 0.71 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.22 / defence 0.78 against České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.63, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 82% | Draw 12% | České Budějovice 6%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 82%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 57%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
České Budějovice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 2.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.