🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Slovan Liberec make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Pardubice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pardubice at CFIG Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.

Slovan Liberec have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovan Liberec away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.70 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pardubice, 3 for Slovan Liberec and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Slovan Liberec winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Pardubice — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Slovan Liberec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Slovan Liberec 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.02 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.809 / defence 0.998 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.023 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.191. Data: 48 Pardubice games / 48 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 39%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Slovan Liberec 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights