🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Slavia Praha.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season.

Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.30 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.80 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Slavia Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Slavia Praha 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Slavia Praha 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.036 / defence 1.234 | Slavia Praha attack 1.344 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.199. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.569 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Teplice games / 48 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 15% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 62%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 80% | Slavia Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights