České Budějovice 0-4 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 1W 2D 7L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 7D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Mlada Boleslav are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Mlada Boleslav, who have claimed 7 wins from 8 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mlada Boleslav have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 51% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.73 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.526 / defence 1.336 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.007 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.163. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.526 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 České Budějovice games / 47 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 16% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 56%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Mlada Boleslav 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 20% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 16% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG České Budějovice 0.73 / Mlada Boleslav 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.526 / def 1.336 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.007 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Mlada Boleslav xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
České Budějovice 0 - 4 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 16% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 56% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (8 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 7W.
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.53) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.01x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
16%
6.34
29%
3.49
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.30
1.57
Mlada Boleslav xG
6.34
16%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
3%
30.34
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.57 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 8W 12D 33L from 53 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 18L across 53 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 8W 5D 13L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.68 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 7W 9D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.51 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 12D 33L in their last 53 games (0.68 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Mlada Boleslav's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.12 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mlada Boleslav have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
9
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Mlada Boleslav have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 42%, Mlada Boleslav 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 46% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of České Budějovice's recent games and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-4 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 0-4 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.73 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.57 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.53 / defence 1.34 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 16% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 56%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.68. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.