Plzen 3-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slavia Praha at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 9W 1D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 45% versus Slavia Praha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 50% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.44 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.163 / defence 0.784 | Slavia Praha attack 1.248 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.406. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Plzen's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Plzen games / 38 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 36% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 33%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Slavia Praha 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 36% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Plzen 1.44 / Slavia Praha 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.163 / def 0.784 | Slavia Praha attack 1.248 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Plzen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Slavia Praha xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Plzen 3 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slavia Praha part of?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 36% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plzen and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.16x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.30
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.82
1.38
Slavia Praha xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Plzen and 1.38 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 42 games, going 32W 8D 2L for 2.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.24 PPG from 42 outings (29W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.48 PPG, Slavia Praha on 2.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 18W 2D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.80 points per game from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.62 scored and 0.79 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Slavia Praha in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 32W 8D 2L in their last 42 games (2.48 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 29W 7D 6L in their last 42 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slavia Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.80 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Plzen
1
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 45%, Slavia Praha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Plzen and 55% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Plzen's recent matches and 60% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Plzen's matches and 55% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Plzen and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Slavia Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slavia Praha 3-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.44 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.78 against Slavia Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 36% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 33%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 50%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.48 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.