Slovan Liberec 1-3 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Slovan Liberec 1W, Mlada Boleslav 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 48% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 38% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.012 / defence 0.858 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.008 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.363. Data: 38 Slovan Liberec games / 38 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 50% | Mlada Boleslav 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.26 / Mlada Boleslav 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.012 / def 0.858 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.008 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mlada Boleslav xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 3 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 36% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (2 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.01) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.01x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.06
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.44
1.18
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.18 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 14W 9D 17L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 16L across 40 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.35 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 8W 3D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.42 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 37%, Mlada Boleslav 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Slovan Liberec) and 58% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 32%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Slovan Liberec 1-3 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 38%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.27 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.