Bohemians 1905 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Plzen — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Plzen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–6 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Plzen trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Plzen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Plzen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.09 xG and Plzen 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.884 / defence 1.257 | Plzen attack 1.126 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.383. Data: 39 Bohemians 1905 games / 38 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 18% | Draw 26% | Plzen 55%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | Plzen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 18% | Draw 26% | Plzen 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.09 / Plzen 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.884 / def 1.257 | Plzen attack 1.126 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Plzen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Plzen xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 18% chance of winning, Plzen a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.88x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
18%
5.41
26%
3.83
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.96
Plzen xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
3%
38.34
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.96 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 10D 19L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 2.49 PPG from 43 outings (33W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 2.14 points per game from 21 outings (13W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.86 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Plzen have gone 33W 8D 2L in their last 43 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.24 PPG; Plzen away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Plzen in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 57%, Plzen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bohemians 1905) and 33% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 43% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Plzen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Plzen finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.09 xG and Plzen 1.96 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against Plzen attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 18% | Draw 26% | Plzen 55%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Plzen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.